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An experiment of
Current Investment Stategy
Prior to 1998, our general philosophy had been
to "buy and hold" securities as part of a diversified
investment portfolio. The second largest portion
of our portfolio had been in equities (the stock
Our general philosophy remains the same; however,
the short term outlook requires special readiness.
After having accumulated stocks over the last 20 years,
participants in this experiment began re-aligning
their portfolios between August of 1998 and August of
Over the period, the average yield on the
stock portfolios was
in excess of 70%. For this, we are grateful.
Unfortunately, our confidence in such
extraordinary gains faded.
By August 16, 1999 we had liquidated 75% of our
equity positions and hedged another 15%. (That means
we sold options that are called coverd
calls. Selling these options helps to
protect our wealth.) We anticipate
less than 10% of our diversified investment
portfolio will be in the stock market by
years' end... and, perhaps as little as 2%.
Our largest position will likely remain in
real estate. But, most of our semi-liquid assets
(like stocks) will be converted to liquid assets. Some of the
proceeds from the sale of the stocks will also
be used to purchase other real assets, such as,
gold, treasury issues and commodities.
If you would like to learn more about
these ideas, please stay tuned.
Please click here to learn
some of the theory behind what we do.
would happen if any of the following were to occur?
- Alan Greenspan resigns
- The Panama canal were to come largely under China's control
- The Sun's 11 year "EM cycle" peaks
- Any of the following global tensions ignite:
- India vs. Pakistan
- China vs. USA
- Iraq vs. USA
- Yugoslavia vs. USA
- Russia vs. World
- China vs. Taiwan
- Israel vs. Middle East
- Africa vs. Africa
- USA vs. Terrorists
- The stock market justifies itself with historical averages
- Y2K computer failures result in any of the following:
- A disruption in financial markets
- Electric power failures
- Telecommunications failures
- Railway and transportation disruptions
- The advent of the new millenium activates the radical
religious groups, governments and organized crime families
- The U.S. government turns their role as "the World's
Policeman" onto their own citizens
- The Microsoft monopoly is disrupted
- The U.S. President and other world leaders are replaced
- Increased meteor activity interferes with telecommunications
- Global warming and natural disasters put a strain on our infrastructure
- The public panics over any of the above issues
If more more than one of
these events happened at the same time,
what might the chaotic system look like?
More Things To Think About
Study: Boston CHICKEN (Who is Watching
Over Our Retirement Accounts?)
Examining the Costs
and Benefits of a Microsoft Monopoly
Electric Utility Outlook for the Northeastern USA
A Hedged Contrarian Position
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